Sg2 Forecast Predicts Sustained Constraints on Patient Access to Emergency and Inpatient Care by 2024

According to a June 10 press release, Sg2, a Vizient, Inc. company, released its 2024 “Impact of Change Forecast.” The forecast projects sustained constraints on patient access to emergency department (ED) and inpatient (IP) care.

The press release states that “Led by an aging population and an increased incidence of chronic disease and conditions such as behavioral health, IP and outpatient (OP) volumes will continue to increase over the next decade, impacting how and where organizations deliver care.”

Further, “Sg2 anticipates IP utilization will rise 3% to 31 million annual discharges, while IP days will increase 9% to 170 million over the next decade, impacting healthcare organizations' ability to manage the flow of patients. Growth in medical discharges will outpace surgical as patients age and are increasingly comorbid, exacerbating bottlenecks in the ED while patients are forced to wait for beds in the IP setting.”

In the OP setting, leading to a projected 17% jump in OP volumes to 5.82 billion. Growth is expected to be seen in both OP surgical services, driven by expanded capabilities and patients' procedural needs, and chronic care required to manage ongoing conditions, such as dysrhythmia and dementia.

Other notable findings in the forecast include:

• Behavioral Health – IP discharges and OP volumes are expected to grow 8% and 26%, respectively, over the coming decade.
• Bariatric – IP bariatric surgery volumes will see a 15% decline in the next decade, fueled in part by scaled adoption of pharmaceuticals coming to market, but also by a shift in commercial and self-paid bariatric surgical volumes shifting to the OP setting, which is projected to see a 13% increase.
• Virtual – Enabled by greater adoption of technological advances, by 2034 23% of evaluation and management visits will be delivered in a virtual setting.
• Care at home — Further enabled by virtual capabilities, home health is expected to grow 22%. As the aging, high-acuity patient population continues to require longer stays in the hospital (9% IP growth), organizations must be intentional about how they plan their IP and OP service line strategies.
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