Study of Over 16 Million Americans Finds Slight Decrease in Obesity Prevalence in 2023

A new study has found that obesity prevalence in the U.S. declined slightly in 2023.

The prevalence of obesity in the country has increased for “several decades,” but near-term changes in obesity prevalence related to the U.S. transitioning from “pandemic conditions” and widespread weight loss medication use, like semaglutide, are unclear at this point.

The study used data from 16,743,822 unique adults in Optum’s deidentified Market Clarity Data. Obesity prevalence rose annually from 2013, plateaued in 2022, and decreased slightly in 2023.

A decrease in obesity prevalence “was observed in the South, among individuals aged 66 to 75 years, and among females.” The 2023 decline was “also seen in a sensitivity analysis using unweighted data.”

The most notable decrease in obesity prevalence occurring in the South is of note because the region “had the highest observed per capita GLP-1RA dispensing rate. However, dispensing does not necessarily mean uptake, and the South also experienced disproportionately high COVID-19 mortality among individuals with obesity.” The researchers suggest that future studies “investigate alternative body composition measures and potential causes for the observed shifts, including GLP-1RA proliferation (e.g., out-of-pocket purchases) or pandemic-associated demographic and behavior changes. This study is limited by possible selection bias and compositional changes, as BMI recorded during medical visits may have skewed estimates and may explain the slightly higher obesity prevalence in this dataset. However, early trends mirrored WHO authoritative data.”