UCLA Research: U.S. Hospital Occupancy Reaches Critical Levels Post-Pandemic

According to a Feb. 19 press release from UCLA Health, U.S. hospital occupancy post-pandemic is notably higher than it was before the pandemic, suggesting a hospital bed shortage as soon as early 2032 according to new research.

The press release stated, “In the decade leading up to the pandemic, U.S. average hospital occupancy was approximately 64%. In a study published in the peer-reviewed journal JAMA Network Open, the team of UCLA researchers found that the new post-pandemic national hospital occupancy average is 75%—a full 11 percentage points higher than the previous average.”

Further, “For their study, the researchers repurposed the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Covid-19 data tracking dashboards to obtain hospital occupancy metrics from nearly every U.S. hospital between August 2, 2020 and April 27, 2024. They then combined these data with national hospitalization rates and the U.S. Census Bureau’s official population projections to model future hospital occupancy scenarios through 2035.”

Hospital occupancy, according to the release, is determined by dividing hospital census by the number of staffed hospital beds. The researchers studied both of these metrics over time, showing that the newly increased baseline in hospital occupancy is primarily driven by a 16% reduction in the number of staffed hospital beds rather than by an increase in hospitalizations. Hospitalizations were mostly unchanged from the pre- to post-pandemic years.

Dr. Richard Leuchter, assistant professor of medicine at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA  was quoted in the release, he said, “Our study was not designed to investigate the cause of the decline in staffed hospital beds, but other literature suggests it may be due to healthcare staffing shortages, primarily among registered nurses, as well as hospital closures partially driven by the practice of private equity firms purchasing hospitals and effectively selling them for parts.”

The release added, “A national hospital occupancy of 75% is dangerously close to a bed shortage because it does not provide enough of a buffer against factors such as daily bed turnover, seasonal fluctuations in hospitalizations, and unexpected surges. According to the CDC, when national ICU occupancy reaches 75%, there are 12,000 excess deaths two weeks later, Leuchter said.”

Researchers calculated the number of anticipated hospitalizations for each year between 2025 and 2035 by adjusting for an expected increase in hospitalizations due to the aging population. If the hospitalization rate and staffed hospital bed supply do not change, average national hospital occupancy could reach 85% by 2032 for adult hospital beds.

The press release also noted that “Steps to avert a hospital bed crisis include preventing more hospital bankruptcies and closures, partly by revamping hospital reimbursement schemes and regulating private equity involvement in healthcare; addressing factors driving staffing shortages such as provider burnout, and changing policy to expand the pipelines of healthcare professionals.”