CMS Announces Projections for National Health Expenditures Between 2023-2032

The Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has released projections of National Health Expenditures (NHE) and health insurance enrollment for the years 2023-2032.

CMS’s Office of the Actuary is projecting that average annual growth in NHE (5.6%) “will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product,” which would result in an “increase in the health spending share of GDP from 17.3% in 2022 to 19.7% in 2032.”

NHE growth is “projected to average 5.6% over 2023-32. This is lower than in 2023 when NHE growth was projected to have been 7.5%, faster than GDP growth of 6.1%, reflecting broad increases in the use of care associated with an insured share of the population of 93.1% (an unprecedented high).” Over 2027-2032, “personal healthcare price inflation and growth in the use of healthcare services and goods contribute to projected health spending that grows at a faster rate (5.6%) than the rest of the economy (4.1%).”

Some instances of NHE spending by major payers include projections for annual Medicare expenditure growth to grow by 7.4% from 2023-2032; a 5.2% average rate of growth for Medicaid spending; an average spending growth rate of 5.7% in hospital spending; and a 6.0% average annual growth in retail prescription drug spending.