AAMC updates physician shortage projections – 122,000 needed by 2032

The Association of American Medical Colleges says we can expect a shortage of nearly 122,000 physicians by 2032. The AAMC conducted its fifth analysis, published April 25, 2019, which indicates demand for physicians is outpacing supply and said in a release that the forecast is similar to past projections with shortages that range from 46,900 to 121,900 physicians.

“The nation’s population is growing and aging, and as we continue to address population health goals like reducing obesity and tobacco use, more Americans will live longer lives. These factors and others mean we will need more doctors,” said AAMC President and CEO Darrell G. Kirch, MD in a statement. “Even with new ways of delivering care, America’s doctor shortage continues to remain real and significant.”

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the nation’s population is estimated to grow by more than 10% by 2032, with those over age 65 increasing by 48 percent.

The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2017-2032, portrays situations that have updated with input from stakeholders, and new modeling that examines the impact of emerging healthcare delivery trends on physician shortages.

Key findings include in the report include:

· The projected shortage of between 46,900 and 121,900physicians by 2032 includes both primary care (between 21,100 and 55,200) and specialty care (between 24,800 and 65,800).

· Among specialists, the data project a shortage of between 1,900 and 12,100 medical specialists, 14,300 and 23,400 surgical specialists, and 20,600 and 39,100 other specialists, such as pathologists, neurologists, radiologists, and psychiatrists, by 2032.

· An aging population will affect physician supply, since one-third of all currently active doctors will be older than 65 in the next decade. When these physicians decide to retire could have the greatest impact on supply.

· The supply of physician assistants (PAs) and advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) is projected to continue to increase. The report models their role in providing health care. Further research is required on the types of services these professionals are providing, and if, or at what point, the supply of PAs and APRNs will become saturated.

· Emerging health care delivery trends designed to improve overall population health do not have a significant effect on physician shortage projections. The report’s first-time analysis of emerging healthcare delivery trends, including providing better care coordination across settings, reducing unnecessary hospitalizations and emergency visits, increasing use of advanced practice providers, reducing obesity and tobacco use, and applying managed care models and risk sharing agreements such as Accountable Care Organizations, only reduced demand for physicians by 2032 by 1%.

· The United States would need an additional 95,900 doctors immediately if healthcare use patterns were equalized across race, insurance coverage, and geographic location. This shortage would be in addition to the number of providers necessary to meet demand in Health Professions Shortage Areas as designated by the Health Resources and Services Administration. This additional demand was not included in the production of the overall shortage ranges.

While rural and historically underserved areas may experience the shortages more acutely, the need for more physicians will be felt everywhere. The overall supply of physicians will need to increase more than it is currently projected to in order to meet this demand.